Why Iowa Doesn’t Matter And Which State Does

Iowa

Sure, America has no issue with Iowa and the residents of the Midwest state, but when it comes to electing presidents, the state is just plain whacky.

The caucus method of voting proved in 2016 to be a mess.

Hillary is accused of stealing the vote from Bernie Sanders while Ted Cruz is accused of stealing the vote from Ben Carson.

Validity to both arguments exist.

While supporters of both campaigns that were supposedly robbed are up in arms, they really shouldn’t be sweating it as Iowa has a poor record of picking winners.

Since the Iowa Caucuses were moved to an early start in 1972, only three non-incumbent winners of Iowa have gone on to move into the White House.

Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush and Ronald Reagan have all lost the Iowa Caucus, while also-rans like Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Dick Gephardt and Tom Harkin have all won the informal Midwest event.

So if Iowa plays an insignificant role in the election of a president, what state does matter?

While Missouri has been called the Missouri bellwether, the state’s voters got it wrong in both 2008 and 2012, ruining their percentage of success in picking a presidential winner.

The new bellwether state is Nevada, which has only been wrong once since 1912.

Ohio, New Mexico, Florida and Delaware have all had two misses.

The only place that bests Nevada is the non-state of Guam. The territory has held a strawpoll since 1984 (as they get no electoral votes) and has had a perfect record.

But don’t discount Tuesday’s first primary in New Hampshire. The voters of the “live free or die” state have only been wrong three times since 1788.

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Robert Chamber
Robert Chambers is a self-described "policy wonk" and has been writing for online news publications for the last several years. He and his wife live in Alexandria, VA.