Democrats were expecting a big blue wave to crash the Republicans control of Congress, but the tides are changing.
Just a month ago the Muller investigation into Russian collusion found Trump associates guilty, Brett Kavanaugh looked like he wasn’t going to get confirmed to the Supreme Court, Beto O’Rourke looked like he would beat Ted Cruz and Barack Obama was out campaigning.
They even thought they would easily win the House and might be able to win the Senate.
The Democrats had a lot going for them… a month ago.
Things change quickly in Washington, and what looked like a blue wave in September could turn out to be a small ripple. The Democrats are still favored to win the House, but it is getting closer.
Independent researchers and analysts have become less optimistic that the Democrats will win the House. The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman made a prediction two weeks ago that the Democrats could gain as many as 30-40 seats in the House. Two weeks later, that is a different story. Wasserman has updated his predations and now think the left will pick up 25-30 seats. What will he think in two more weeks?
Wasserman thinks that the Republicans have a 30% chance to hold off the blue wave and keep the majority in November.
The 538 House “Classic” forecast now has Dems at 84% to take control & an average gain of 39 seats. I suspect both are slightly too high, b/c the model is reading a bit too much into Dems’ staggering Q3 $$ bonanza. https://t.co/k8K9YCvnzg
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 19, 2018
Can we really believe the polls and the pollsters though? Look at what happened in the 2016 election. Wasn’t Hillary supposed to win in a landslide?
Last week Kellyanne Conway spoke to Fox News about trusting the polls. “Let’s not forget the same geniuses that predicted a huge romp by that woman who lost in 2016 are the same people predicting a huge win by the Democrats this time.”
As the midterms get closer and the campaigning winds down, this race is becoming anyone’s game. Republicans are fired up, of course it took the Kavanaugh hearing and violence against the right to get them energized, but they’re in the race now and they could actually win.
Do you think the Republicans will keep the majority in the House? Let us know in the comments below.