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Republicans Are Going To Lose The House Unless Polls Are Like 2016

Nancy Pelosi
Will this be the next Speaker?

According to polls, it looks like the House will fall to the Democrats an the Republicans will retain the Senate, but can we trust the polls?

In 2016, the political forecasters were projecting Hillary Clinton to be the next president by a very wide margin. They also said it would be a landslide. Remember this?

What happened to the polls in 2016? For one it was a national race and it is hard to poll effectively at a national level. The polls were right in that Hillary would win the popular vote, but wrong in who would win the election. After Trump won, the pollsters had some explaining to do.

The midterms are a little different. The local races are easier to poll with more local media and learning institutions investing in polling for regional and statewide news coverage.

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Right now, ABC News has the probability of the Democrats winning the house at 86.1%. The overwhelming lead for Democrats is probably not too far off from what we will see on election night, but there is an x-factor.

Much like the 2016 elections, a lot of people could be saying they are voting one way or that they are undecided in fear of being mocked or ridiculed or their support of the Republican party. With so much animosity against Trump and Republicans today, some people just don’t want to deal with arguing. Some avoid polls all together.

On the left in most states, it is socially acceptable to talk about who they’re voting for and their dislike for the president.

We are in a very unique period of American history and polling is harder than ever. However it is likely that the Democrats will win the House back, there is still a silent group out there that may or may not be in the majority. We’ll see next week.

Do you think the Republicans can keep the House? Let us know in the comments below.

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