Could this be signs of a big Republican victory in November?
According to historian Larry Schweikart, Republicans are requesting and sending in a monstrous number of early-voting ballots–which, traditionally, have been a form of voting more dominated by Democrats.
On Twitter, Schweikart explained why he sees a red wave, writing:
“I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew—very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican,” he explained.
He continued: “So, in four sample states where we are already seeing large #s of ballot requests—AZ, FL, OH, and IA—and which have very different voting patterns, I have found that so far (and anything can change—but usually the patterns hold) the Republicans are exceeding their #s from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.”
“One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year,” he added. “But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.”
“Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also looked at four key FL counties, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Lee, and Broward, and in all four counties (!!) even the blue ones, Ds are underperforming 2016 and Rs are overperforming. Same is true in IA absentees. Ds always lead in total absentees in IA. But again, they are behind the 2016 election—and in 2016 Ds had fallen behind their 2012 #s in IA! But Rs are up from 2016.”
So we looked at a key IA district that no one is watching, IA2 that everyone just assumed the D incumbent will win. And lo and behold Rs are up 7% in this district, D is down 2.6%. This is over 5,000 votes shifted already (plus Is are way down, indicating people are “picking sides”). In a district where the D won by 28,000, and where Ds ALWAYS lead in absentees, to be already down 5,000 votes before absentee voting is even over, and before the big guns that Rs bring on election day, well, if I was that D I’d be worried.”
Schweikart stresses that Republican enthusiasm is surging in early ballot requests all across the country–and that, in some places, Republicans are actually leading Democrats in the early voting alone… despite the fact that far more Democrats usually vote early than Republicans.
“Here is another reality the “pollsters” and pundits either miss or flat out ignore: LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY VOTED. We just haven’t counted them yet, but we can know if they were Ds or Rs!!” Schweikart asserted. “When I see data—not polls, but ballots—ALL going the same way [then] I don’t care what polls or “experts” say. The voters are SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.”