Republicans are leading Democrats in the “generic ballot” for the first time since President Trump was inaugurated.
According to a new Reuters poll, if the 2018 election were held today, more people would vote for a Republican over a Democrat—and it wasn’t even close.
40.4 percent said they would vote for Republicans, while just 34.5 percent said they would vote for a Democrat: a nearly 6 point advantage for Republicans.
The poll shows a brutal drop for Democrats—who, in the same poll conducted in December 2017, held a nearly 13 point advantage over Republicans.
That represents a nearly 19 point swing towards Republicans—in the same poll—in just six months.
Democrats were planning to run against President Trump, who remains more unpopular than popular with the American public—but good news about the economy, which a full 68 percent of Americans credit Trump’s policies with, and strong diplomatic victories with Iran, Syria, and North Korea have fueled a comeback for the GOP. Now, all the Democrats have to campaign on is the phony Russia Collusion story.
Not only is President Trump’s approval rating decisively in the mid-40s, according to the RCP Average of polls, but now it appears other Republicans are benefitting from his coattails.
Because Republicans are more evenly geographically distributed than Democrats, and benefit from an incumbency advantage, a 6-point lead for Republicans wouldn’t just mean the end of the Democratic dream of a “blue wave” but, quite possibly, a historic Republican victory.
